Christopher Luxon's leadership is under scrutiny once again, with a series of missteps and communication blunders casting doubt on his ability to lead the National Party. The Prime Minister's recent actions have raised concerns among his own MPs, who are now questioning his suitability for the top job.
The week began with a series of mishaps, including Luxon's accidental revelation of potential tax increases during a press conference. He and his deputy, Nicola Willis, had intended to pressure the Labour Party to adopt budget responsibility rules, but instead, Luxon inadvertently disclosed plans for a fuel excise tax, bed tax, and bank tax if the National Party were to return to power.
This gaffe was followed by reports of National MPs discussing a potential leadership change, with some suggesting a shift in the top position. The NZ Herald quoted an MP as saying, 'There's going to be change in the top job. It's just a question of who is going to be it.' While some MPs remained silent or denied any leadership discussions, others hinted at a growing unease within the caucus.
The situation is further complicated by the recent decline in the National Party's popularity. The RNZ-Reid Research poll in July showed a 2.1-point drop in support, with National now at 28.7 percent, its fourth consecutive decline and the weakest result since Luxon's leadership began in November 2021. This trend has raised concerns among MPs who fear their seats could be at risk if Luxon's popularity doesn't improve.
Luxon's personal popularity has been a concern for some time, with some MPs believing his lack of appeal is dragging the party vote down. The Prime Minister's recent gaffes, such as criticizing the Rotorua Business Chamber for a 'parent-child mentality' and his use of a New Zealand Defence Force plane for a fundraising event, have not helped his image. Additionally, his handling of Foreign Minister Winston Peters' comments has been questioned, with some MPs calling for action.
The situation has reached a boiling point with the announcement of a referendum on the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) voting system. Luxon's sudden decision to hold a referendum on MMP, despite the caucus's lack of prior knowledge, has further strained his relationship with his MPs. The National Party's list for the upcoming election was announced with minimal upset, but the leadership now faces a crucial meeting with its caucus on Tuesday night, where fresh concerns are expected to be raised.
In my opinion, Christopher Luxon's leadership is facing significant challenges. His communication blunders and lack of personal popularity are dragging the National Party down. The growing calls for a leadership change within the caucus are a clear indication of the party's internal tensions. Luxon must address these concerns and quickly regain the trust of his MPs if he hopes to lead the National Party to success in the upcoming election.
